Source: Harvard Business Review
Published: July 2019
A Futurist’s Framework for Strategic Planning
Futurists think about time differently, and company strategists could learn from their approach. If you’re working on a project that requires predicting what will happen many years from now, consider using timelines that aren’t lines. Instead, build a cone with four distinct categories: (1) tactics, (2) strategy, (3) vision, and (4) systems-level evolution.
Visualize your short- and long-term thinking simultaneously. Identify highly probable events for which there’s already data or evidence, then work outward.
Tactics: 1-2 years away with high certainty
Strategy: 2-5 years away with medium certainty
Vision: 5-10 years away with low certainty
Systems-level evolution: 10+ years away with almost no certainty