Source: Bill Gates
Published: April 2020
Innovations To Defeat COVID-19
Circulated: April 28, 2020
Bill Gates published a 13-page memo on the scientific advances needed to defeat COVID-19. Innovations range across five categories: treatments, vaccines, testing, contact tracing, and policies for opening up.
"The typical development time for a vaccine against a new disease is over five years, including:
a) making the candidate vaccine
b) testing it in animals
c) safety testing in small numbers of people (this is known as phase 1)
d) safety and efficacy testing in medium numbers (phase 2)
e) safety and efficacy testing in large numbers (phase 3)
f) final regulatory approval and building manufacturing…"
Gates indicates that the timeline for large-scale COVID-19 vaccination is "likely to be 18 months, even though it could be as short as nine months or closer to two years."